Conditional Cash Transfers in Kazakhstan: Dynamics and Regional Profiles

Abstract

The study used economic and statistical methods of analysis (calculation of specific and average values, coefficient of variation, data ranking), cluster analysis based on the k-mean link method. Authors divided the parameters of program participants in the official information base into socio-demo-graphic and organizational and managerial. In the medium term, the pro-gram increased its focus on large families with children, the specific indica-tor of “full-time students” increased, which indicates improved conditions for the formation of human capital of children. There is a vector of move-ment of regions towards homogeneity in terms of specific socio-demo-graphic indicators per family and an increase in heterogeneity in terms of participation in active employment measures. Using cluster and economic-statistical analysis, three types of regional profiles were identified. The pro-files are clearly linked to the economic space and types of demographic be-havior. The first type includes the northern and central regions, character-ized by low demographic parameters, high unemployment and active partic-ipation in employment measures. The second type is represented by large agglomerations of Kazakhstan with average demographic indicators, low unemployment rates and a high number of workers per family. It is advisable to direct active employment measures to improve the skills of workers to increase their wage level. The third type is represented by five regions with high levels of demographic behavior indicators. In this type, there is also the problem of low qualifications of employees with low wages and the problem of unemployment. For the southern regions, it is advisable to stimulate re-settlement to the central ones and introduce subsidies for preschool ser-vices instead of a cash transfer.