Modeling of unstable economic systems based on the distribution of the population engaged in the economy of Tajikistan

Abstract

Object: The purpose of this study is to analyze and develop a mathematical model of the distribution of the employed population in the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan, according to the types of economic activity using the Sigma Plot program. Methods: In the present study the mathematical and statistical modeling of the distribution of the population employed in the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan is used. Modern computer technologies and programs create opportunities for developing and verification of new models and also help to improve model-based research methods, as well as the methods for analysis and presentation of simulation results. The narrowly professional use of modeling methods is giving way to the wide use of simulation models based on modern computer programs. And there is an inevitable need to put the issue of development of modeling in the context of real-life issues and interpretation of its fundamental concepts. Findings: For the proposed models the mathematical regression equations are obtained and the coefficients of these equations are calculated using computer programs. By the proposed mathematical and statistical models the ratio of the employed population and the unused labour force in the Republic of Tajikistan is calculated. The results showed that in order to accelerate the industrialization of the country and ensure the sustainable development of industry, it is necessary to take into account this ratio in the country. Conclusions: The developed mathematical model in the present work has been applied to show the dynamics ofchanges in the employed and unemployed labour force in the Republic of Tajikistan for the period 2006-2022. Consequently, we showed the possibility of using the unused labour force in order to solve one of the strategic goals of the republic, that is, the accelerated industrialization of the country.