Short-term forecasting of agricultural raw materials resources as a basis for planning the production of processing industries of the agro-industrial complex

Abstract

The agricultural industry is among difficult economic systems. Expanded reproduction in agricultural industry represents interrelation of biological, engineering, organizational and economic procedures. Branches of agricultural industry are closely connected among themselves and with other branches of agro-industrial complex. The main task of forecasting and planning the development of the agroindustrial complex is to maximize the volume of the end product of the agroindustrial complex and to approximate the volume and structure of production to the volume and structure of the needs in it. The final output of the agroindustrial complex includes products used for personal consumption of the population, industrial consumption in nonagricultural sectors, increase in reserves, stocks and exports. Products are supplied to the consumer mainly through the sphere of circulation: state and cooperative trade, public catering, collective-farm market. A part of production, passing the sphere of circulation, is consumed directly by the families conducting personal subsidiary farm. Forecasting and planning of the development of agroindustrial complex is carried out on subcomplexes which are defined proceeding from technological interrelation of production of final products. An ultimate goal of agricultural industry - achievement of a steady rise of agricultural production, reliable provision of food and agricultural raw materials to the country, the unification of the efforts of all sectors to obtain high end results in accordance with the food program.