Impact of global and local urbanization and social trends on the future of Kazakhstan

Abstract

The article examines global and local trends in the urbanization process in Kazakhstan and the world and their impact on the future of the country. In 2007, a turning point in the urbanization of the entire world came — the milestone of 50 % was overcome, and by 2050 66 % is expected. It describes forecasts for an increase in women’s economic influence at the expense of third world countries, influence on the development of scientific and technological progress through the activities of special scientific zones or cities with a high density of technical companies, as well as the change of the global consumer base from Europe and America to the countries of Asia and Tropical Africa, the beginning of economic growth on the African continent. At the end of the XXI century, the three largest cities in the world will be in Tropical Africa — Lagos, Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam. It provides statistics on the development of urbanization in Kazakhstan, approaching the indicators of population ageing, the dangers of too rapid growth of megacities without adequate medical and educational provision. The article concerns state measures to prevent the formation of “marginal rings”, due to the growth of protest potential in the event of a social crisis, as well as the desire to reduce the outflow of population from rural areas. It reveals the prospects for the formation of agglomerations in Kazakhstan and the similarity of local trends in Kazakhstan and Russia in terms of population reduction in small and medium-sized cities and the growth in the number of large cities and megacities. Analysis of the studied material is provided.