Modeling and analysis of the mutual influence of the RUB / KZT and USD / KZT exchange rates: the period before the pandemic and as a result of the impact of COVID-19

Abstract

Object: to assess of the interdependence and mutual influence of the exchange rates of the RUB and USD against the tenge before the COVID-19 and during the period of its impact on the Kazakhstan`s financial market. Methods: the main research methods are regression modeling, the least squares method, analysis and generalization of methodological approaches of authors assessed the influence of various factors on the exchange rates of countries. Findings: the COVID-19 introduced uncertainty in the formation of exchange rates of the RUB / KZT and USD / KZT. The strong direct relationship between the RUB / KZT and USD / KZT, which existed before the pandemic, as a result of the impact of COVID-19, was replaced by a negative and weaker correlation dependence. Conclusions: the impact of the pandemic on the exchange rates of the ruble against the tenge and the dollar against the tenge is ambiguous, which reduces the degree of mutual influence of exchange cross-rates between the ruble and the US dollar even in countries that closely interact with each other. Further research is required to identify the factors that contributed to this change in the interdependence of the ruble / tenge and dollar / tenge.